The 2008 Election: Change or Trend

The 2008 presidential election is frequently referred to as historic. There is no doubt that is a valid assessment. The national numbers reinforce that. A record number of Americans voted in the 2008 election. Over 131 million votes were cast for presidential candidates. How do the numbers relate to past presidential elections. This article is a brief look at 200 from a historical perspective.

Four of the last five presidential elections have drawn over 100 million voters. Each of the last three elections have been record setting for total votes cast. The 2008 election brought over 9 million more voters than 2004. That is significant increase. How does it compare to other increases between two presidential election. The 1952 election resulted in 13 million more votes cast than in 1948. The 1992 election brought out 13 million more voters than in 1988. The 2000 election showed an increase of 9 million votes from 1996. The record goes to 2004, when 17 million more votes were cast than in 2000. 2008 did bring out significantly more voters but was not a record.

President Obama won 52.87% of the vote in 2008. That is highest percentage for a democrat since 1964. Then you would have to go back to the four Roosevelt victories between 1932 and 1944 to find higher numbers. The last republican to beat 52.87% was George H. Bush in 1988. The Obama numbers fit in with the extraordinary circumstances of the elections when democrats have achieved percentages like his.

Obama defeated McCain by over 9 million votes. That was the highest margin by a democrat since the Lyndon Johnson victory of 1964. It is the highest margin of victory by either party since the Reagan reelection of 1984. His 9 million vote victory was a 7.27% margin of victory. Only Bill Clinton in 1996 has had a higher percentage for a democrat since 1964. The republicans have fared better. They have had four candidates with margin of victory percentages(Bush 1988, Reagan 1980, 1984 and Nixon 1972). The margin of victory adds further depth to the Obama victory.

365 electoral votes were won by Barack Obama. The democrats have won eleven presidential elections since 1932. Three of those candidates won less electoral votes than Obama. Harry Truman won 303 in 1948, John Kennedy won in 1960 and Jimmy Carter won 297 in 1976. The republicans have nine presidential elections since 1948. Six republicans have won more electoral votes than Obama in those nine victories.

Obama won a solid victory. However, his historical national numbers reveal a more average win. The republicans had a period from 1968 to 1988 when they won five of six presidential elections. In the previous period of 1944 to 1964 the democrats won four of six elections. If the pattern continues, we are in the middle of a period that favors the democrats in presidential elections. They have won three of the last four presidential elections. That pattern puts the Obama win more in perspective. His victory was historical but just as much a part of political trends. If the trend continues, President Obama will likely be reelected in 2012. Then a new cycle will begin.